A New Approach to Regime Detection and Factor Timing

The financial research literature has found that the performance of assets (and factors) can vary substantially across regimes (for example, see here and here)—factor premiums can be regime dependent. Unfortunately, the real-time identification of the current economic regime is one of the biggest challenges in finance. Amara Mulliner, Campbell Harvey, Chao Xia, and Ed Fang, authors of the March 2025 study “Regimes,” offered a new perspective on identifying economic regimes and leveraging that information for potentially improved investment outcomes. This approach resonates with a growing interest in finding “analogous market moments” – periods in history that echo current conditions.

To read the rest of the article go to the article on Alpha Architect’s site here

And subscribe to my Substack columns